Stock market investment strategies in the context of macro-control outlook on the stock market policy environment under macro-control at the early stage of securities development, the impact of policies on the market far exceeded the impact of macro-economy and the profits of listed companies. Today, the value investment concept is gradually taking the lead, the impact of macroeconomic cycles and the profit cycles of listed companies on the market is becoming more and more important, However, the anti economic cycle ability brought by the policy cycle of the securities market should not be underestimatedIn february2004, the State Council issued the "nine opinions" to promote the development of the capital market, which put forward comprehensive and comprehensive ideas for the development of the capital market, and raised the status of the capital market to an unprecedented level -- a strategic and overall task
this marks the launch of a new round of China's active stock market policy, which will have a long-term and far-reaching positive impact on the healthy and steady development of the capital market, and also shows that the policy environment of the stock market has fundamentally changed
2. The recent macro-control has a great impact on the stock market, but the foundation of the active stock market policy has not been shaken. Various measures still need to be implemented one by one. The focus of the government's economic work has shifted to macro-control. At the same time, the tight monetary policy has also reduced the direct or indirect inflow of funds into the stock market. However, it should be noted that macro-control has not shaken the basis of the active stock market policy contained in the nine opinions of the State Council. Once the macro-economic soft landing is successful in the second half of the year, the implementation of the positive stock market policy will be accelerated, and the policy environment of the stock market will continue to improve
on the whole, we are cautiously optimistic about the stock market policy environment in the second half of the year
a-share market operation trend in the second half of 2004
1, macro-control soft landing, warm stock market policy environment and A-share market entering the low-risk area with relatively reasonable valuation mean that the current market decline space is very limited
although the macro-control policies implemented in the second quarter of 2004 were underestimated, and the stock market had an unexpected adjustment range, investors' confidence in China's sustained and healthy economic development remained unchanged. The "scientific and coordinated development concept" put forward by the central government has more reason to make investors believe that China's economy can achieve a soft landing and usher in more effective growth after this "braking"
at the beginning of 2004, the State Council issued several opinions on promoting the reform, opening up and stable development of the capital market, which first put forward that vigorously developing the capital market is an important strategic task, ensuring the continuity of the positive policies of the stock market in the future, providing investors with relatively clear and stable expectations, and making investors optimistic about the medium and long-term trend
the macro-control will cause the overall profit growth of listed companies to slow down, but under the condition that the macro-economy can achieve a soft landing, the overall profit level of listed companies will not fall by the first margin in 2004
at the same time, from the historical comparison of P/E ratio, P/B ratio, return on net assets and other indicators, the A-share market has entered a low-risk area with relatively reasonable valuation
2. The market will usher in a large-scale rebound in the second half of the year, which is expected to challenge the new high in the year.
in the short term, as the macro tightening is still uncertain, and the expectation of interest rate hike is also gradually increasing, the market will still be dominated by shock adjustment, and even panic plunges will occur. However, we are still cautiously optimistic about the market in the second half of the year
it is expected that the GDP and profit growth of Listed Companies in the second quarter will still be at the peak, and the performance of the semi annual report will still be very good, which will help investors to revise their expectations on profit growth upward. In the second half of the year, the effect of macro-control will gradually appear, which will greatly alleviate the market's concern about the "hard landing" of the economy and effectively enhance the market's investment confidence. In addition, the positive stock market policy will be gradually implemented. We believe that the market is expected to usher in a large-scale rebound in the second half of the year. If the policy can be actively coordinated, the market is even expected to challenge the new high in the second half of the year
the main investment opportunities in the A-share market in the second half of 2004
macro-control will change the profit cycle of some industries, so the judgment of investment opportunities in the second half of 2004 needs to focus on the impact of macro-control. On this premise, the function introduction of our electronic universal testing machine for rubber static stiffness the main views on the market investment opportunities in the second half of the year are as follows: first, we continue to be optimistic about the resource "bottleneck" industries such as coal, electric power and petrochemical. Although the macro tightening will lead to a decline in investment growth, China's investment will still maintain a relatively rapid growth in the next few years under the background of upgrading the consumption structure of residents, accelerating urbanization and industrialization. The demand for coal, electricity, petrochemical and other resources will be relatively strong, and the supply capacity of these industries will be difficult to expand rapidly in the short term. Therefore, their "bottleneck" position will continue to be maintained for at least the next two to three years. This means that the steady growth of these industries is predictable
secondly, we are optimistic about leading companies with brand advantages in communication operation and consumer electronics, electronic components, food and beverage, automobile, retail, tourism, medicine, banking and other consumer industries. This macro tightening is mainly aimed at the investment field, and the impact on the consumer industry is limited. On the contrary, the fall in the prices of upstream raw materials will effectively control the manufacturing costs of downstream consumer industries, which will help relevant industries and listed companies to improve their business performance. At the same time, the start of this round of economic cycle and the upgrading of consumption structure are more convenient to use in multiple scenarios. Therefore, the consumer industry will benefit from this round of economic growth in the medium and long term. In view of the large number and different quality of Companies in the consumer industry, we suggest investors focus on the leading companies with brand advantages. Third, we are optimistic about power equipment, transportation (including ports, shipping, airports, highways) and other industries that are not sensitive to macro tightening. As power and transportation are in the "bottleneck" position in the national economy, the investment in fixed assets to increase production capacity in these industries is not within the scope of this macro-control. In order to solve the shortage of power supply, since the second half of 2003, the state has continuously increased power investment. The huge market demand has prompted the power equipment industry to enter a high-speed growth cycle. However, it is difficult to ease the tense situation of transportation capacity, which will also enable the transportation industry to continue to maintain stable growth
fourth, we are also optimistic about small and medium cap stocks with high growth. Whether from the international mature market or from the domestic market, the pricing of high growth small and medium cap stocks is higher than that of large cap stocks, and the pricing difference expands with the improvement of the market. At the same time, the launch of Shenzhen SME sector will also stimulate the growth of small and medium-sized stocks in the main board market. Therefore, the high growth of small and medium-sized stocks in the second half of the year should have good market opportunities
fifth, as steel, cement, real estate and other industries highly related to investment are the key objects of this macro tightening, we will give neutral or evasive suggestions in the short term, but some leading companies in the industry can still focus on them. In the iron and steel industry, the construction steel is the most affected by the macro-control, and the plate enterprises are relatively less affected. In particular, the sheet metal enterprises mainly used for household appliances and automobiles will continue to maintain stable growth because their demand will not be affected. Baogang and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., which are mainly sheet metal products, still deserve special attention. Under the influence of the credit crunch and the strengthening of land resources supervision, the growth of the real estate industry will slow down. However, Vanke, the industry leader, is relatively less affected and still deserves special attention. The non-ferrous metal prices have been adjusted significantly downward recently under the influence of macro tightening and the rebound of the US dollar, and the industry profits will be greatly affected in the short term. However, there is still a gap between supply and demand of non-ferrous metals. Once the rebound of the US dollar ends, the non-ferrous metal prices still have the opportunity to rise
in order to further look for investment opportunities in the second half of the year, we also made a preliminary statistics on the capital inflows into various industries from the beginning of the year to May 25. The results show that there are obvious signs of capital inflows in the first half of the year in electronic components, coal, communication services and consumer electronics, food and beverage, power equipment, software and system integration, retail and other industries. To a certain extent, this also means that leading companies in the small yellow car industry that look up the street will have more opportunities to rise in the second half of the year
suggestions on A-share market investment in the second half of 2004
in terms of investment strategy, we suggest that investors should actively pay attention to the changes of macroeconomic data and correctly grasp the rhythm of macro-control; Take advantage of the market callback in the second quarter to actively adjust the position structure, and gradually increase the allocation of consumer industries and high growth small and medium-sized stocks while continuing to hold resources "bottleneck" industry stocks. At the same time, in the context of macro-control, the phenomenon of simultaneous rise and fall in the industry will gradually weaken, and the choice of individual stocks becomes particularly important. Therefore, in terms of specific operation, investors should focus on the strategy of "bottom-up, select individual stocks" and focus on companies with "reasonable valuation and sustainable growth capacity"