The hottest foreign trade situation in 2019 is und

2022-08-03
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Foreign trade situation in 2019: Although there is pressure, there is no need to be pessimistic

2018, China's foreign trade has delivered a beautiful answer. According to customs statistics, in 2018, China's total import and export value reached a record high of US $4.62 trillion, an increase of 12.6%; Among them, exports reached 2.48 trillion US dollars, an increase of 9.9%; Imports reached $2.14 trillion, up 15.8 percent; The trade surplus was US $351.76 billion, down 16.2%, the best performance in the past seven years, with remarkable achievements

however, the foreign trade data in December 2018 was significantly lower than expected

in terms of exports, first of all, the weakening of global economic growth has led to continued pressure on China's exports. In December, JPMorgan Chase's global composite PMI index was 52.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from November; Among them, the US Markit manufacturing PMI index and the EU manufacturing PMI index were 53.8% and 51.4% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from November; The overall downward trend in the global manufacturing business cycle has continued to narrow external demand

secondly, the "export grab" effect caused by Sino US trade friction began to disappear. According to the list of Sino-US trade frictions and mutual tariffs, before each round of tariff landing, the goods involved in the list have a relatively obvious "rush for export". However, as China and the United States began to release signals of easing trade frictions, the phenomenon of "seizing exports" was significantly weakened. The data shows that China's exports to the United States fell by the largest margin among all developed countries, reaching 13 percentage points; From the perspective of products, clothing, agricultural products, textiles, footwear and integrated circuits are the main drag on the export amount of the month

finally, it is related to the high base effect in 2017. In december2017, the absolute volume and growth rate of China's import and export were the highs of the same period in the past five years. Affected by the rising base, there was a great pressure on the growth rate of import and export in december2018

the decline in imports was even greater. First, affected by the economic downturn, the overall growth rate of China's domestic demand fell. On the one hand, the pressure on industrial production activities led to the reduction of relevant imports. In December, China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.4%, the lowest in 2018. On the other hand, the total retail sales of social consumer goods, infrastructure investment and real estate investment continued to decline, leading to the weakening of the total domestic demand

second, affected by Sino US trade frictions, the decline of major imports continued to expand. In December, the import volume of automobiles and automobile chassis decreased by 29.9% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend since September. The import volume of high-tech products decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, 10.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The import of mechanical and electrical products decreased by 16.1% year-on-year, about 13 percentage points lower than that of the previous month

third, the fall in the year-on-year growth rate of commodity prices affected imports. Troubleshooting: clean the cycloid bearing, gear rod, pointer and wire wheel. In December, the CRB spot index of industrial raw materials decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend since August

due to the fact that the import decline in december2018 was greater than the export decline, and the impact of RMB appreciation, the current month's surplus expanded compared with the expected and previous value, realizing a trade surplus of $57.06 billion, an increase of $15.2 billion compared with the previous month. This is actually a "recession surplus" phenomenon, which is likely to be unsustainable

foreign trade in 2018 will be high before and low after, which also indicates that China's trade situation is likely to face more difficulties in 2019 against the background of global economic growth slowdown. In the latest global economic outlook report released by the world bank, the world bank lowered its global economic growth forecast. It is expected that the global economic growth will drop from 3% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2019. Unexpected changes may take place in China US trade, brexit, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the economic situation of the United States, which actually brings greater challenges to Global trade and China's foreign trade

although the pressure is great, the favorable factors for China's foreign trade still exist. First, the proportion of regions from outside developed countries in China's foreign trade has gradually increased. In 2018, China's import and export to ASEAN increased by 11.2%, and the growth momentum continued to maintain. The close trade relationship between the two sides gradually deepened. There is room for tightening between the front chuck seat and the oil cylinder, which will become the growth point of China's export in the future; The trade volume between China and Russia has exceeded US $100billion, a record high. Both sides still have great development potential. In addition, China's imports and exports to countries along the "the Belt and Road" totaled 8.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3%, 3.6 percentage points higher than the overall national growth rate. With the convening of the "the Belt and Road" International Cooperation Summit Forum in 2019, the impact of countries along the "the Belt and Road" on China's foreign trade will gradually increase, which can effectively hedge the impact of the slowdown in the economy of developed countries

in addition, Sino US trade frictions are easing. From January 7 to 9, 2019, China and the United States held a vice ministerial consultation on economic and trade issues in Beijing. Both sides have the desire to make positive progress. In the short and medium term, Sino US trade frictions are likely to ease, which will certainly boost global economic confidence. Of course, as far as the long term is concerned, Sino US trade frictions still deserve long-term attention

in recent important central economic conferences, stable foreign trade was frequently mentioned as one of the six stabilities. With the emergence of favorable factors for China's foreign trade, there is no need to be pessimistic about China's foreign trade situation in 2019

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